Armenian News Network / Groong
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Introduction
Hello, and welcome to the
Armenian News Network, Groong, Week
in Review. This show was recorded on November 8, 2022.
Here are the major topics
we’ll touch on today:
●
Latest “Peace” Developments
○
Border delimitation discussions in Brussels
○
Meeting of the foreign ministers in Washington
DC.
●
Bellicose Statements between Azerbaijan and Iran
●
Ruben Vardanyan takes over as State Minister of
Artsakh.
To talk about these issues, we have with us:
Arthur G. Martirosyan, who is a Senior Consultant with CM Partners. In
1994, after graduating from Yale University, he joined Conflict Management Group
and Harvard Negotiation Project, and has since worked on conflicts in the
former Soviet Union, the Middle East, the Balkans, Africa, and Latin America.
Topics This Week
Latest “Peace” Developments
After the negotiations and subsequent
declaration in Sochi, last week negotiations and interaction around the so
called “Peace” treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan continued apace. The
committees on border delimitation, which the sides have committed to complete
in time for signing of the treaty, met in Brussels. Meanwhile, Bayramov and
Mirzoyan flew to Washington DC to hold a meeting under the auspices of the US
state dept.
Border Discussions in Brussels
Let’s talk about the border delimitation first.
On Thursday November 3rd, the deputy prime ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met
in Brussels to continue discussion on delimiting the border
between the two countries.
Following the September war, Pashinyan’s
government said it is committed to signing an agreement with Azerbaijan in
2022, and in October Armen Grigoryan stated that the
process of delimitation is also slated for completion in 2022.
Armenia and Georgia, who are actually on
friendly terms with each other, have been working for more than 20 years to
delimit and demarcate their border.
●
How is it possible to delimit a border which is
at least twice as long as the Armenia-Georgia one, in a few months?
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If Moscow has said that its general staff
archives are in possession of the most accurate maps of the region, why are
these discussions being held in Brussels?
Foreign Ministers in DC
Very soon after Pashinyan met with Aliyev in
Sochi, foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan announced
that he will meet with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov, in
Washington DC this week, at the invitation of US Secretary of State Anthony
Blinken. That meeting took place today on November 8, 2022. Nothing public was
announced other than re-affirmation of the statements in Prague and Sochi.
The meeting in Sochi which was organized and
attended by Putin. The three parties agreed on a statement: they resigned from
the use and the threat of force; they agreed to resolve issues based only on
mutual recognition of each other’s territorial integrity and inviolability of
borders.
Prior to the Sochi meeting, Russia had indicated
that it would support a special mention of Artsakh in the declaration. There
were also references by Pashinyan to a 15-point declaration, which would also
prolong the duration of Russian peacekeeper deployment. These things didn’t
happen, and Putin indicated disagreement among the sides as the reason for
this.
Now, the sides are in Washington DC continuing
their negotiations. Pashinyan says he sees no issue with this and has said that
both Western and Russian proposals are acceptable to Armenia.
As Pashinyan himself admitted, the Western
proposals foresee a recognition of Artsakh wholly as part of Azerbaijan.
●
How can Pashinyan’s
statements make sense, that both Western and Russian proposals are acceptable
to Armenia?
●
From a negotiation standpoint, we see Pashinyan
announcing that the Western plan that excludes the status of Artsakh, is
acceptable. This is right before he flies to Moscow to negotiate a Russian
plan, which might include a status for Artsakh. What is Pashinyan’s
negotiating tactic here?
●
What does the failure to even mention Karabakh
as a geographic location tell you about the balance of negotiating power
between Russia and Azerbaijan? Does Moscow have any leverage over Baku?
Last week we had Benyamin Poghosyan on our
podcast, and he brought up a small nuance that I think is worthwhile exploring here.
He said that EU leaders and negotiators were surprised at the “Sullivan Plan”,
the name given to the Washington-backed principles, which would put a deadline
on negotiations and signing of a treaty. Benyamin said that EU reps didn’t
favor a hard time limit since that would essentially translate to endorsing the
use of force if the deadline expires.
●
Is there a difference between what the EU wants
to see, and what the US wants to see as the outcome of this process?
Bellicose Statements Between Azerbaijan and Iran
Over the past weeks, we have seen an increase in
war rhetoric between Azerbaijan and Iran. The rhetoric preceded the massive
military exercises that Iran held on its border with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
After the exercises the rhetoric has reached critical levels, with Aliyev
openly warning both Armenia and Iran.
Just yesterday, Iranian intelligence announced that
a citizen of Azerbaijan was the “main element” in directing the terrorist
attack against the Shahcheragh mosque on October 26
that ended up killing 15 people.
Meanwhile, today on November 8, amidst
nationwide celebrations in Azerbaijan over its so-called “victory” two years
ago, the flag of the “South Azerbaijan Republic'' (which is actually Northern
Iran was raised
in Baku. The dictator of Baku meanwhile was in occupied Shushi, where he proclaimed
“we will achieve what we want, everyone knows this, and those who conduct
military exercises in support of Armenia on our border should also know this.
Nobody can scare us.”
· How serious is the threat of war between Azerbaijan and Iran given what we’re seeing and hearing?
Ruben Vardanyan Appointed Artsakh State Minister
After weeks of public discussion, Ruben
Vardanyan was appointed to the post of State Minister in Artsakh, by president Arayik Harutyunyan. Former state minister Artak Beglaryan agreed to take an
advisory role to Vardanyan.
For Vardanyan’s tenure, the state minister’s portfolio was
augmented to include all but the Defense ministry.
●
Why is Vardanyan assuming this post?
●
While we know what he has said officially, what
are the real expectations of him as Artsakh’s state minister, and how does he
plan to deliver?
Topics from the Panelists
1. Arthur
- Lack of cohesion and unity around the cause of Artsakh.
2. Hovik
- Lack of urgency in Yerevan about Artsakh.
Wrap-up
That was our Week in Review
and we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions.
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Thanks to Laura Osborn for
the music on our podcasts. On behalf of everyone in this episode, we thank you
for listening. Stay well, we’ll be back next week.
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Keywords
Arthur Martirosyan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, , Sochi, Brussels, Ararat Mirzoyan, Jeyhun Bayramov, Borders,
Peace Negotiations, United States, Iran, EU, European Union, Turkey,