Armenian News Network / Groong
Guests
● Arthur Khachikyan
Hosts
Introduction
Hello, and welcome to the
Armenian News Network, Groong, Week
in Review. This show was recorded on October 23, 2022.
Before
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Here are the major topics
we’ll touch on today:
●
Monitors in Armenia
●
Russia-West Rivalry in the South Caucasus
●
Armenian-Iranian relations
●
Israeli-Lebanese Maritime Agreement
●
Lebanese Presidential Elections
To talk about these issues, we have with us:
Dr. Arthur Khachikyan, who
is an International Relations expert from Stanford University, specializing in
Intervention. He currently teaches at the Russian Armenian University in
Yerevan.
And
Yeghia
Tashjian, who is a regional analyst and researcher based in Beirut, with expertise
in China, Iran and the Persian Gulf. Tashjian is Associate Fellow at the Issam
Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American
University of Beirut and a part-time instructor in International Affairs at the
American University for Science and Technology.
Topics This Week
Monitors in Armenia
A couple of weeks ago we were talking with Benyamin Poghosyan, and in his scenarios for securing the safety of Armenia, he recommended that Armenia needs to negotiate for indefinite, or at least prolonged, monitoring missions, CSTO troops, or whoever’s able to cause a dampening of Azerbaijan’s attacks on our borders.
It seems that Armenia is indeed negotiating for international monitors, EU, OSCE, CSTO, any presence, even civilian missions, at this stage of the negotiations with Azerbaijan, with Aliyev’s deadline of Dec. 2022 to get an agreement signed, looming on the horizon. We are explicitly avoiding calling the process with Azerbaijan a “peace agreement” because there can be no peace signed with a gun pointed to your head, no matter what Pashinyan wants to call it.
We all know the checkered history of
peacekeeping and monitoring missions under different auspices, whether it is
UN, NATO, OSCE or EU. Yet, some people are really excited about a limited
2-months monitoring mission from the EU, composed of several dozen civilian
monitors.
●
What is Armenia's goal with EU monitors?
●
What lessons can the international community and
Armenia draw from past successes and failures of international monitoring
missions?
We just heard the news towards the end of the
week that the OSCE is sending a needs assessment team
●
Will this result in OSCE monitors on the ground
too?
As if the EU and OSCE are not enough, the CSTO
says it will meet soon and sending monitors to Armenia is one of the
recommendations of their fact-finding team. In Astana president Putin said that
Armenia, holding the presidency of the CSTO in 2022, should convene a CSTO
security council meeting and request the troops it needs on its borders. This
hasn’t happened for months.
●
What is the hold up? Did they have an offer of
monitors much earlier than the EU, that was ignored by Armenia?
Russia-West Rivalry in the South Caucasus
Macron stated that Russia conspired with Turkey
against Armenia. You could also hear it in US official statements including:
●
State dept briefings: Vedant
Patel (State Dept) said
“The entire region should be concerned” about Russia/Iran cooperation.
●
Pallone, whom I called “friend of Armenians”,
said essentially Russia has no future in the caucasus
and that Armenia has to accept an autonomous status for Artsakh that was
existent in Soviet times, in an interview
on H1.
Experts have warned that lack of cooperation or
outright rivalry between the West and Russia in our region is against Armenia’s
interests. Yet at first glance it seems that’s where we’re headed. The
animosity between the West and Russia and Iran is coming off loud and clear.
In terms of the Artsakh conflict, it appears
that the West has collectively recognized the sovereignty of Azerbaijan over
Artsakh, even with Macron wavering on the status of Artsakh. The Russian
proposal is only a tad bit less discouraging. The Russians offer a very similar
“peace plan” (what in reality is a clear capitulation) but with the status of
Artsakh to be decided at a future date, without any clear prescription of when
and how, and what happens in the meantime.
●
Will Armenia be forced to choose sides? Can it
afford to play the “complimentarism” card?
●
Which way is the Pashinyan government learning?
Ararat Mirzoyan recently said
that “unexpected third countries” are supporting Azerbaijan’s interpretation of
the Nov. 9 statement, many interpreting it as an obvious accusation at Russia.
●
What do you think about this statement? How
important is Armenia’s sovereignty, with Soviet borders, to the West and
Russia?
Iran-Armenia Relations
In the past month, Iran has fully activated its
diplomacy, as well as its military in the northern direction. It appears that
the aftershock of Armenia’s losses in the 44-day war have awakened Iran to its
own present disadvantageous positions, vis-à-vis its traditional competitors,
as well as enemies; and that includes Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia, as well as
the west, the US and the EU. We can even include
Israel in this list, due to the worrisome defense cooperation between Israel
and Azerbaijan.
At every summit,
or conference, Iran has reiterated its redline about
keeping the Iran-Armenia border intact through all geopolitical changes. And
most recently, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp, the IRGC, has begun
conducting massive military exercises in the northern direction; reportedly the
exercises point at readiness to invade Azerbaijan, Nakhichevan, and defend
Armenian borders deep into its territory.
●
What are the stakes for Iran, in the South
Caucasus, specifically through Armenia?
●
Are western observers on Armenia’s eastern
borders, whether they are the EU civilian monitoring group, or some OSCE
mission, a threat to Iran’s security interests? How?
This past week, Iran opened its consulate in
Kapan, in Armenia’s southern Syunik province. The foreign ministers of both
countries were present and emphasized the close relations between the two
countries, with Iran’s FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian saying
that Armenia’s security was Iran's own security.
Iran’s newly appointed consul general in Kapan, Morteza Abedin Varamin, added
that “we will not officially recognize any change in internationally recognized
borders of Armenia.” He further stated, “don’t worry, I am in Kapan”.
Iran has also announced a number of economic
investments in Armenia, including a manufacturing
line for auto exports to the Eurasian Economic
Union.
●
Are Iran’s interests primarily driven by
geopolitics, or economic
interests? Is Iran protecting its North-South economic corridor, or Armenia?
●
Would Iran go to war for Armenia’s territorial
integrity?
India
In the past week, defense minister Suren Papikyan paid a long visit to India. After Armenia’s near
quarter billion dollar purchase
of Indian weaponry, including MLRS and surface to air missiles,
and other weaponry, Armenia is considering further
purchases. Papikyan also
attended a Defense Expo in New Delhi. This week reports also came out that
Armenia is considering buying Iranian drones, which are proving their value in
battle for Russia in Ukraine.
Question:
●
After decades of the Armenian military being armed
by Russia, why is Armenia now shopping in India and Iran?
●
Many western countries have already slapped
sanctions on the Iranian drone manufacturer, and the rest are sure to follow.
In light of this news, how should Armenia proceed? Can it afford to anger the
West by buying Iranian drones? Is the current government capable of taking a
risk if needed?
After the 44-day war, there were complaints by
Pashinyan that some Russian weaponry “worked only in 10% capacity”. More
recently Pashinyan has made side swipes at Russia,
insinuating that they had been paid for weaponry which they were not
delivering.
●
What is the common thread in these issues, and
what do they mean?
In a response to the reports that Armenia may be
purchasing Iranian drones, the newly installed Iran consul in Kapan, Morteza Abedin Varamin said
that “Armenia will never need offensive weapons”.
●
What does that mean?
●
What is Armenia’s vision for, and perceived role
in, the region?
Israel-Lebanon Maritime Agreement
After years of stop and start negotiations,
Lebanon and Israel have announced
that a maritime agreement brokered
by the US is essentially agreed upon.
●
Is this a win-win for both countries, and what’s
the outlook for economic benefits for Lebanon?
On Thursday this week, the Lebanese parliament
again failed
to elect a new president, and Michel Aoun’s term ends
on October 31.
●
What the state of presidential politics in
Lebanon?
●
What are the stakes for the Lebanese-Armenian
community?
Topics from the Panelists
1. Hovik
- Problems with the Census in Armenia
2. Yeghia - Cholera again?
3. Arthur
- Uneducated punditry about education reform
Wrap-up
That was our Week in Review
and we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions.
You can find
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Thanks to Laura Osborn for
the music on our podcasts. On behalf of everyone in this episode, we thank you
for listening. Stay well, we’ll be back next week.
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Keywords
Arthur Khachikyan, Yeghia Tashijian, Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Iran, India, Military cooperation, Iran drones, MLRS, Missiles, South
Caucasus, EU Monitoring Mission, OSCE Mission, CSTO peacekeepers, Observers,
Lebanon, Maritime Agreement, Turkey, Russia, Corridors, Peace Negotiations,
UNIFIL, Israel, Michel Aoun, Emmanuel Macron, Abdollahian,
Frank Pallone, Ukraine, Ukraine War, North-South Corridor