Armenian News Network / Groong
Guests
Hosts
Introduction
Hello,
and welcome to the Armenian News Network, Groong,
Week in Review. This show was recorded on Sunday, September 17, 2022.
I’m Hovik
Manucharyan, here with Asbed Bedrossian.
Here are the major topics we’ll touch on today:
● Azerbaijani
Aggression: As many
expected, Azerbaijan commenced a violent war against Armenia on September 13.
There are hundreds of casualties including civilians and Armenian territories
that have fallen in the hands of the aggressor. A fragile cease-fire is in
place for now. We’ll analyze with our guests the basic facts and try to make sense
of what happened.
● Russia
and CSTO: The troubling
aggression by Azerbaijan brought more troubles to Armenia’s relationship with
Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) which so far is
not sending any military aid but will only send a fact-finding mission to
Armenia. Do Armenians (including our leadership) have unrealistic expectations
from the organization? Listen to us to find out.
● UN
& International Reaction:
Next, we’ll analyze international reaction to the attack including Armenia’s
appeal to the UN Security Council as well as interests of Armenia’s Southern
neighbor Iran.
● Armenia’s
War Communications: How did
the Armenian government communicate with the public. Is the Armenian government
trying to conceal the scale and impact of the Azerbaijani attack?
● Nancy
Pelosi Visit: A high profile
congressional delegation visited Armenia this week, led by House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi. We’ll get analysis from our experts on what this means for US-Armenia
relations.
To talk about
these issues, we have with us:
Arthur G. Martirosyan, who is a Senior Consultant with CM Partners. In
1994, after graduating from Yale University, he joined Conflict Management
Group and Harvard Negotiation Project, and has since worked on conflicts in the
former Soviet Union, Middle East, the Balkans, Africa, and Latin America.
And
Karen Vrtanesyan, who you may know from his work with Razm.info,
a specialty website on military and warfare strategies with a focus on Armenia
and its neighboring region.
And
Suren Sargsyan, who is the founder and President at the
Armenian Center for American Studies, a research center based in Yerevan.
Topics This Week
Azerbaijani Aggression
On
the morning of September 13, 2022, shortly past midnight, Azerbaijani armed
forces began a full-scale offensive against the entire border between three
Armenian marzes (Gegharkunik, Vayots
Dzor, and Syunik). The intensity of the fighting was
equivalent to that of the 44-day war with Azerbaijan.
As
of Saturday, September 17, there are at least 135 deaths on the Armenian side,
while Azerbaijan claims 79 dead. The attack was accompanied with war crimes
including attacking civilian areas, killing of civilians, as well as horrendous
rape and mutilation of female Armenian service members, all broadcast on the
internet by Azerbaijani forces for the world to see.
Additionally
on the Armenian side, there are 7 official POWs (prominent human rights lawyer,
Siranush Sahakian, claims more than 20), hundreds of wounded. There are
about 200 damaged or destroyed homes and more than 7600 residents have been
evacuated from towns and villages near the fighting, which include Kapan,
Jermuk, Martuni, and Sotk.
The
Azerbaijani forces have also gained territory. In Jermuk, the enemy has broken
through 7.5 km deep and 8.5km wide. Azerbaijani troops are now 4.5km from
Jermuk.
Since
September 16 there is a humanitarian case-fire in place which seems to be
holding at the time of this recording. But Armenian officials have also accused
Azerbaijan of preparing to attack Armenia from Nakhijevan
in order to forcefully punch a corridor through Armenia’s south.
· What is your observation of what took place? In
your assessment, what is Azerbaijan’s goal and was Armenia taken by surprise by
this invasion?
Notes:
● Lead
up of propaganda for more than a week
● All
analysts expected that full scale violence was imminent
● DM
was in the US
● Armenia
didn't provide any warnings to citizens
Despite this
being day #5 since the attacks began, there has been no declaration of martial
law and no mobilization of forces. Prime minister Pashinyan said he doesn’t see
the need to declare martial law or mobilization at this time, meanwhile Alen Simonyan, president of the national assembly said that instituting martial law could be a sign of
aggression!!!
● Azerbaijan has now seriously extended its
encroachment into more Armenian territory. What is the Armenian government
waiting for? Why not at least begin mobilization given that it takes time to
train called up fighters?
Russia-CSTO
Aggression or Provocation?
In
the aftermath of the attack, Armenia has appealed to international
organizations such as the United Nations, the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO). It has also applied to Russia based on the bilateral
security treaty between the two countries.
The
UN Definition of aggression of “aggression” is clear. However, at least
during the initial 3 days of the conflict, before the ceasefire was reached,
Armenian authorities explicitly avoided the term “aggression”. In the national
assembly, on the day of the attack, the opposition’s offer to explicitly use
the term aggression in a resolution condemning the attack, was rejected by the
Civil Contract majority. Only during the second UN Security Council meeting on
the 4th day, as a ceasefire was to start taking effect, did the Armenian
representative use that term.
Article
4 of the CSTO treaty explicitly uses the word “aggression” against a member
state as a trigger. Overnight it was known that there were over 105 killed.
● Why didn’t the Armenian side use the term
aggression on the first day?
CSTO Response
As
we know, the CSTO sent a fact-finding team to the region this week. Meanwhile,
Stanislav Zas, CSTO General Secretary, is scheduled to arrive in the following
week.
But
even before the arrival of the team, Russian officials said that sending
military aid to Armenia was not discussed.
To
quote Sidorov (head of the
CSTO headquarters): “Therefore the CSTO’s military involvement was not
discussed on September 13, nor yesterday, nor today, and, I think, it won't be
discussed in the near future.”
● Do we know if Armenia invoked Article 4,
requiring military aid, or Article 2 which simply calls for consultation?
● How can we explain the inaction of the CSTO?
In
light of CSTO non-action, there have been increasingly strong public rebukes
from Armenian officials. Armen Grigoryan, national
security council, said that Armenia expected more from the CSTO and in a veiled
threat of leaving the organization said that “Armenia had nothing to think
about, it is the CSTO who should think about what to do”.
Meanwhile,
certain media, usually funded by Western sources, have increased coverage of
the thesis that Armenia should leave the CSTO. There was even a small protest held on Saturday calling for Armenia’s
withdrawal from the organization.
But caught
between a Russia at war and a hard place, should Armenia curb its expectations
from the organization? Could Armenia’s own actions over the past years have
helped or harmed the relationship with CSTO members sufficiently to have an
effect on the outcome we’re seeing today?
● What is Armenia’s proper response to CSTO?
In a region like
Armenia’s, security alliances are a must and much of our national security
strategy has been built upon the foundations of CSTO membership.
● Should we even be members of an alliance which
multiple times now has declined to help Armenia?
Note
of course, that leaving the CSTO could open the way for Azerbaijan joining the
group and cause more harm to Armenia.
Russia
In addition to
criticizing the CSTO, Armenian officials have not been shy of public spats with
Russia. We should recall that Armenia’s relations with Russia are at such a
state, that Armenia’s strategic ally had recently sent a diplomatic note of
protest accusing Armenia of tolerating anti-Russian propaganda.
In addition to
the CSTO, Armenia also has applied to Russia as we mentioned earlier.
● What has the official response of Russia (not as
part of the CSTO but Russia itself) been to Armenia’s request?
● Will this request also have the same fate as the
CSTO one?
After the
hearings in the UN Security Council, Armenia praised the response of members in
general except isolating “one member”, alluding to Russia but without naming
it, saying that Armenia expected more.
Alen Simonyan in an interview also indirectly blamed Armenia’s
geo-political troubles on Russia, linking the war in
Artsakh to what took place in Syria and Ukraine.
Russia also
didn’t attend a visit to the regions where there is conflict organized by the
Armenian government for foreign embassies.
● As an experienced negotiator. Is this type of
public complaining the right strategy?
● What is causing the Armenia-Russia relationship
to turn so sour and what could Armenia have done better?
UN and International Reaction
UN Reaction
Following
the aggression, Armenia also took its case to international partners including
requesting a hearing at the UN Security Council. In fact, there were 2
meetings, one on September 13, the day of the attack, which was closed and
another one on September 15 which was open.
There
is no press about the outcome of the closed meeting, however, the meeting on
Sep 15 was broadcast live and we had a chance to directly hear the reactions of
different members of the UNSC.
Generally,
there was significant support from UNSC members. For instance:
● India called Azerbaijan "aggressor"
● The US called on Aliyev to ‘cease the
hostilities’ and ‘disengage military forces’ and underscored that the fighting
was happening inside Armenia. In a separate public announcement, the US sent
condolences for Armenian deaths.
● France asked Azerbaijan to withdraw to initial
positions.
Meanwhile
Russia’s reaction was uncharacteristically mild and bothsidist.
This led Ararat Mirzoyan to say that Armenia is expecting more from a certain
country - alluding to Russia.
In
the end, there was no resolution and nothing but words it seems.
● How would you evaluate Armenia’s bringing up the
issue to the UNSC? Could it have gotten more from its international partners?
Iran
This week in
Samarkand at the Shanghai Cooperation Council, Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi also commented on Azerbaijan’s invasion, saying that
“any change in the recognized borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia should be
rejected”. This has been a frequent and consistent message from the
military-political leadership of Iran, including Ayatollah Khamenei.
● How
significant is the Iran factor in this? Is there any way for Armenia to derive
security benefits or guarantees from Iran’s position?
In general, there
is a global shortage of arms and ammunition due to the war, but there are
reports that Armenia’s southern neighbor Iran has offered Armenia weaponry
multiple times in the past. If Armenia were to purchase weapons from Iran, it
would also greatly simplify the logistics of delivery albeit expose Armenia to
risks from US sanctions.
● What is the prospect of Armenia acquiring
weapons from Iran?
Karen Vrtanesyan on Azerbaijani Aggression
Guest: Karen
Vrtanesyan, recorded separately.
Karen, we’re
talking on Sunday, Sep 18, 2022. Close to 6 days have passed since the
beginning of this new Azerbaijani offensive.
● What is Azerbaijan’s goal and was Armenia taken
by surprise by this invasion?
The
chief of general staff Edward Asryan explained to the media that the Azeri
incursion in Jermuk is over-extended and claimed the enemy is surrounded.
Furthermore, he expressed assurance that within a few days as their supplies
run out, they will be forced to retreat. Meanwhile, Alen Simonyan
talked about a few “sabotage groups” who are being hunted down.
● Are they talking about the same group?
● How would you assess Armenia’s strategic and
tactical military communication with the public and the press in the wake of
this attack?
In
this latest attack we have over 135 martyrs. We are hearing reports that they
are being buried quietly, perhaps 10 per day, without much fanfare. Taking
pictures or video in Yerablur is restricted.
● Why not conduct a full honor guard ceremony for
these soldiers, even Azerbaijan does this? After all, we are already hearing of
cases of heroic fighting and resistance. What is the strategy that Armenia is
pursuing in not publicizing these funerals?
This week,
Armenia seemed to even blame Russia for lack of weapons. Alen Simonyan, president of the National Assembly, in an interview on H1, said that what Armenia needs most now is
weapons and they’re having trouble getting them from one direction (again
alluding to Russia without naming it explicitly).
● How do you explain this complaint about having
trouble acquiring weapons?
Suren Sargsyan on Nancy Pelosi Visit
A high-profile US
congressional delegation of Democratic representatives visited Armenia over the
weekend. The delegation was led by Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House.
Accompanying Pelosi were Representatives Frank Pallone (D-NJ), Anna Eshoo
(D-CA), and Jackie Spier (D-CA). All four representatives are staunch friends
of the Armenian community in the US.
The visit
generated media coverage, including some emotional scenes with Pelosi in
Tsitsernakaberd, the Armenian Genocide Memorial.
● What will this visit bring to US - Armenia
relations?
● Is there potential to cooperate in the military
sphere?
● How was Pelosi’s visit perceived in Tehran and
Moscow?
Wrap-up
That
was our Week in Review and we hope you found it helpful. We invite
your feedback and your suggestions. You can find
us on most social
media and podcast platforms, or our website Groong.org. Don’t forget to subscribe to our channel on
YouTube, Follow us on Twitter, and Like our Facebook page.
Thanks
to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts. On behalf of everyone in this
episode, we thank you for listening. Stay well, we’ll be back next week.
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Keywords
Arthur
Martirosyan, Karen Vrtanesyan, Nancy Pelosi, Frank Pallone, Anna Eshoo, Jackie
Spier, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, Russia, Turkey, Iran, War,
Aggression, UN, United Nations, UNSC, Security Council, Communication channels,
Corridors, Borders, Peace Negotiations, United States, EU, European Union,