Armenian
News Network / Groong
Guests
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Introduction
Hello,
and welcome to the Armenian News Network, Groong,
Week in Review. This show was recorded on Monday, April 4, 2022.
This week’s major
topics:
●
Ukraine Crisis Update
●
Parukh-Brussels-Moscow
To talk about
these issues, we have with us:
Dr. Pietro Shakarian, who is a Lecturer in History at the
American University of Armenia in Yerevan. His research focuses on the history
of Soviet Armenia and the Caucasus.
Topics This Week
Ukraine Crisis Update
Current State of Affairs
● What are the latest updates from the Ukrainian
front? Where does the situation stand now?
● What are Russia’s objectives in Ukraine? What do
denazification and demilitarization mean, again?
Bucha
During the course
of this war, there have been several reports of human rights violations and war
crimes. Most recently, the Ukrainian
authorities have charged that Moscow deliberately killed civilians in the town
of Bucha, just north of Kiev. Zelensky and Foreign
Minister Kuleba even went so far as to accuse Moscow
of “genocide.” Moscow counters that there were no killings
by Russian troops and that this is a deliberate provocation by the Ukrainian
authorities. The Kremlin has also called for a meeting of the UN
Security Council
over the allegations.
●
What
is going on with Bucha and similar war crimes
accusations in Ukraine?
Peace talks in Istanbul
There was
optimistic news earlier in the week after a day-long summit between Russia and
Ukraine on March 29 in Istanbul. Ukrainian and Russian sides indicated that
they have general agreement around the outlines of a potential cease-fire
agreement.
What are the
emerging outlines of the Russo-Ukrainian negotiations to end this war?
We talked about
Turkey as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine and didn’t think Russia would
be willing to allow Turkey this role, especially since Turkey is not really a
neutral party, because of its military cooperation with Ukraine, including the
sale of Bayraktar drones, and the plans to set up a
drone manufacturing plant there.
● How was Turkey able to slip into the role of a
mediator?
Energy politics
Another major
news this week was that April 1 was the deadline for Russia’s demand for
payment for gas in rubles or else Russia would shut it off. European countries
argued that this would essentially result in busting of sanctions but given
that Europe collectively relies on Russia for 40% of its gas, it is difficult
to see what leverage they have.
We later learned that the actual devised scheme for
paying for Russian gas in Rubles was complex, involving transfer of Euros to a
Russian bank account, then converting it to Rubles in order to pay for gas.
Does this scheme achieve the same kind of effect as simply
demanding payment directly in Rubles? What are the details that we should be
aware of?
Parukh-Brussels-Moscow
Parukh
After
Azerbaijan’s incursions in the western parts of the Askeran
region, Artsakh president Arayik Harutyunyan said
that now Armenians occupy the higher point of Karaglukh,
but that important heights are still under Azerbaijani occupation. Military
experts are saying that Artsakh’s situation will become even more dire if
Azerbaijanis don’t withdraw.
On Thursday and
Friday, within the span of 24 hours Putin and Pashinyan had two telephone
conversations. Yet in his speeches Pashinyan continues to blame Russia, and says that Azerbaijan is making provocations in
order to start a large-scale war and that there is a tendency to increase those
provocations.
Erdogan backed up
Azerbaijan by calling their actions defensive and called Artsakh’s Defense Army
as “illegal armed Armenian elements”.
Different
Armenian entities also seemed to increase criticism of Russia over the past
weeks. For instance, Armenian Public TV seems to have invited speakers who
would be naturally more critical of Russia, including Aram Zaveni
Sargsyan.
● How did we get here?
● Who is working with whom and against who?
Russia-Azerbaijan Relations
What’s going on
with relations between Russia-Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan showed some teeth to
Russia and at least publicly it appears that Baku is able to digest what was
said and done. Let’s just recap what happened:
● Azerbaijan started an aggression
● Russia publicly pointed the finger at Baku.
Declared that Azerbaijan had retreated.
● Baku provided a public dressing-down of Russia’s
MOD, denying that they had withdrawn and providing lessons on how to pronounce
and write city names in Azerbaijani, calling them liars. Essentially a slap in
the face.
● Some Russian politicians and commentators called
for Russia to take military action against Azerbaijan, for which Russian officials
had to publicly apologize.
● There was even news that Azerbaijan will provide
humanitarian / economic aid to Ukraine.
Some say that Russia never forgets such offenses, but
the repercussions for Azerbaijan may not be visible publicly. What does Armenia
have to show for its alliance with Russia?
Brussels Before Moscow
Pashinyan is
going to meet Aliyev in Brussels next week. This news was a surprise for
analysts and happened before a much earlier announced trip that Pashinyan will
take to Moscow in mid-April. Some media reported that in Moscow, Pashinyan will
meet with Aliyev as well.
We saw this
pattern back in December, when there was a previously announced meeting in
Sochi that was suddenly preceded by a meeting in Brussels. Can this be seen as
a last-minute intervention by the West in order to maintain some control or
influence over the negotiations? And if so, what are the goals from the west?
Armenian Opposition: Last Chance?
The opposition will hold a protest on Tuesday,
in a rare show of unity the protest will be jointly organized by Pativ Unem and Hayastan.
It seems like a protest before Pashinyan meets
Aliyev is especially obligatory, given Pashinyan’s
declared intention of signing a peace deal with Aliyev without any evidence of
guarantees of a status for Artsakh outside of Azerbaijan. Opposition representatives
have declared that this will not be an isolated protest, but we remember the
fruitless protests following the events in Feb of last year.
Also, besides checking the minimal checkboxes
and being able to say that they were protesting in the streets, can the
opposition accomplish anything else either to affect Pashinyan’s
policies or as they have promised to their voters, to remove Pashinyan from
power?
Topics from the Panelists
1. Pietro
- Lack of unity among Armenians
2. Hovik
- Government not appointing crucial open positions
Wrap-up
That
was our Week in Review show, and we hope it helped you catch up with
some of the issues in and around Armenia from this past week. As always, we
invite your feedback and your suggestions. You can find us on most social media
and podcast platforms, or our website Groong.org.
Thanks
to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts. Don’t forget to subscribe to our
channel on YouTube, Like
our pages and follow us on social media. On behalf of everyone in this episode,
we wish you a good week, thanks for listening and we’ll talk to you next week.
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Keywords
Pietro Shakarian, Ukraine, Artsakh, Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Parukh, Askeran,
Karaglukh, Bucha, Brussels,
Russia, Moscow, Turkey, Genocide, Armenian Opposition, Opposition Protests, Mamikon Aslanyan, Arush Arushanyan, Chief of
General Staff, Acting Mayor,