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Introduction
Hello,
and welcome to the Armenian News Network, Groong,
Week in Review. This show is being recorded on Tuesday, January 25, 2022.This
week we’re going to talk about the following major topics:
● President Armen Sarkissian resigns
● Russia-NATO Standoff over Ukraine
● Vahan Kerobyan, Minister of
Comedy
To talk about
these issues, we have with us:
Dr. Pietro Shakarian,
who is a Lecturer in History at the
American University of Armenia in Yerevan. His research focuses on the history
of Soviet Armenia and the Caucasus.
Topics This Week
President Armen Sarkissian resigns
President Armen
Sarkissian announced his resignation on Sunday, January 23rd. Prior to his
resignation, the president was on a visit to Arabic countries in the Gulf,
including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, working on establishing opportunities in
energy as well as investments and financing for such projects in Armenia. From
the UAE, the president’s office announced that he was taking a short vacation to undergo a medical examination. In his
resignation letter, he complained that the constitution doesn’t give him enough
influence.
On Monday,
January 24, Hetq, an investigative journalism outfit published a scandalous story alleging that Armen Sarkissian was a citizen of St.
Kitts and Nevis, a small Caribbean island country
known as an “offshore banking” haven. According to Hetq,
Sarkissian wrote back to the investigation team before his resignation,
claiming that he tried to relinquish his citizenship in that country but the
person handing his paperwork had passed away unbeknownst to him. This report
from Hetq is damning, if true, but we’ve also heard
conflicting reasons presented in the media.
So here are a few
of the top theories:
- As he explains in his letter, President
Sarkisian realized that his office is weak and can not
affect processes in the country.
- He realizes that he’ll be in legal trouble
in Armenia as claimed by the article in Hetq.
- Some see this as a prelude to
constitutional “reform”. Pashinyan has expressed an opinion that he wants
the constitution to be reverted to the semi-presidential system that
existed before Serzh Sargsyan’s latest changes. Many believe that
Pashinyan sees himself in the position of president in such a future
system. If the constitution is changed, it will be the 5th time in 30
years.
- And lastly, given the timing of the move
related to Turkish-Armenian and Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, some
speculate that Sarkissian was basically trying to safeguard his legacy and
didn’t want to be associated with these unpopular potential agreements.
Do these theories
make sense? And especially why now?
The Armenian
opposition, who in general have not been fans of Sarkissian, expressed their
criticisms. Let’s read a few of the reactions:
● Armen
Ashotyan from the Republican Party of Armenia criticized Sarkissian for choosing to “fly” at this
moment, when there are storm clouds hanging over Armenia’s head. He
additionally claimed that this will pave the way for Pashinyan to completely
consolidate power in the country, including pushing through constitutional
changes that the government has expressed a desire to institute.
● Arthur
Vanetsyan from the I Have Honor alliance said the resignation has come much too late. Vanetsyan went on to say that Sarkissian has always
actively cooperated with Nikol Pashinyan, mainly
fulfilling all the whims of the latter.”
● Aram
Vardevanyan from the Armenia Alliance said
over the past 4 years, the president, who complained about his lack of powers,
frequently refused to exercise those powers, effectively pushing forth the
agenda of the government.
So what are the next steps in the process?
● According to Article 147 of the Rules of Procedure of the National
Assembly of Armenia, the former president has one week (or until January 30) to rescind his
resignation.
● There will be a new parliamentary vote for president to take place no earlier than 25
and no later than 35 days after January 30, when the counting starts.
● From January 30, there will be a 5 day window during which new nominees for president can be
put forth by any group of deputies comprising ¼ of the total deputies of the
national assembly. This means that the opposition can also nominate a
candidate.
● According to Article 125 of the constitution, the president must be
elected with ¾ of the total votes. If that doesn’t happen then a second round
during which the winner must have ⅗ of the total votes. If that fails, then the
elections go to a third round during which the winner must receive a majority
of the votes. So it seems that the opposition can at
least force the elections to go to a second round if they so choose.
Who are likely
contenders for the position? Some names have been tossed, including: Edmon Marukyan, Aram Zaveni Sargsyan, and Artak Zeynalyan (Former Minister of Justice), and Arman Tatoyan, the outgoing, highly regarded
and popular Ombudsman of Armenia.
Ukraine
Pietro, a couple
of weeks ago on our podcast you called on Biden to talk to Russia, and find a
resolution to the difference, which have since only become more aggravated
between Russia and the West, These differences are
primarily manifesting themselves as the Ukraine crisis right now, but of course
they’re much wider ranging.
So the first round of US-Russia, or US-NATO talks
… “failed”, shall we say it? Both sides gave standard press releases that they
wish to avoid war, and continue talks, etc. but let’s go beyond the buzzwords,
can you help us unpack what the Russia-West issue is right now?
What are the
specific demands by Russia? What are the specific demands by NATO?
● Blinken and Lavrov met in Geneva on Friday
○ Any tangible outcomes from that meeting?
● Biden’s foot-in-mouth moment
○ Earlier in the week, January 20 to be precise,
Biden held a press conference. He threatened a “severe and coordinated”
response to a Russian attack, but at the same time made a distinction between a
“minor incursion” and a full-blown attack.
● Meanwhile, bellicose
and anxiety-inducing language is all abound:
○ US staff reductions in Kyiv embassy
■ Expands warning to already Level 4 security
warning
■ Considering sending thousands of troops to “Eastern Europe”
■ Blinken warns of “massive consequences”
○ UK accused Russia of trying to install a puppet government
in Ukraine. The evidence for this is of course “secret”.
○ Putin has repeatedly said that Russia is NOT
planning on attacking Ukraine and accused western powers of coordinated
disinformation. At the same time, Russia has not ruled out provocations from
Ukraine that may lead to conflict and has repeated that it will not tolerate
Ukraine as a member of NATO.
○ Just yesterday, Russia held consultations with Cuba around “strategic partnership”,
evoking memories of the Cuban missile crisis.
○ Meanwhile, Zelensky, apparently emboldened by
the show of Western support, has ratcheted up his own rhetoric as well. In an
address to Ukraine’s national security community, he said: “I am convinced that the time has come to move
to offensive actions to defend our
national interests. “
● Not all of Europe seems to be united on
supporting Ukraine:
○ German top naval officer, Kay-Achim Schoenbach, general was sacked for saying they should respect Putin.
○ US/UK arms shipments appear to be bypassing Germany and the country is reported to have a
new policy of “peace”, under which it won’t sell arms to Ukraine and will prohibit other NATO
members from exporting arms to Ukraine through its territory.
○ Sweden seems to be joining Germany according to
some early reports.
Is this really
just posturing? How likely is war? And, if this is simply a high-stakes game of
poker between the West and Russia, what is the goal? Is it time to think about
“What If”? What if there’s a wider, localized, but still major confrontation
between Russia and Ukraine?
Will Armenia be
safe at a time when Russia’s full attention will be on its major problem of the
day in Ukraine?
● What happens to the Armenia-Georgia border?
● Armenia-Iran border?
● Turkey / Azerbaijan?
● What about Armenia’s membership in CSTO?
Vahan Kerobyan, The Comedian
In economic news,
Armenia’s economic growth was finalized at 4.2%, much lower than government
promises.
● In 2021, Vahan Kerobyan had promised double-digit growth and promised to resign if he didn’t achieve this goal. When confronted with his past promises, he said “I was kidding”.
● By the way, Vardan Aramyan (who appeared on our podcast recently) predicted that real growth would be around 5%, and similarly Hrant Mikaelian had predicted 4.5%.
● Nikol Pashinyan exclaimed in parliament that he was the one who forbid Kerobyan from resigning (“forbid” is an interesting word, are they slaves?)
How do we know if
the government is kidding or serious in the future?
Stalled Border Demarcation Process
Last week we
noted that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had said that he had passed new
Armenian proposals about border demarcation to Azerbaijan. This past week both
Armenian FM Mirzoyan and NSC chair Armen Grigoryan clarified the proposals. They said that Armenia has
proposed both sides should simultaneously pull back their armed forces, and deploy border troops along what is generally
regarded as the Soviet border between the republics.
Azerbaijan
rejected the proposal and called it “pre-conditions” which are unacceptable and demanded an immediate and unconditional
start to the process of demarcating the border. Whenever Azerbaijan has
indicated disagreement with the state of the negotiations with Armenia, it has
resorted to violence along the border, and this has cost Armenian lives. We
want to make sure that Armenia remains in a high state of alert and readiness
for such rogue behavior.
Wrap-up
That
was our Week in Review show, and we hope it helped you catch up with
some of the issues in and around Armenia from this past week. As always, we
invite your feedback and your suggestions. You can find us on most social media
and podcast platforms, or our website Groong.org.
Thanks
to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts. Don’t forget to subscribe to our
channel on YouTube, Like
our pages and follow us on social media. On behalf of everyone in this episode,
we wish you a good week, thanks for listening and we’ll talk to you next week.
Groong
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Keywords
Pietro Shakarian, Armenia, Ukraine, Russia, Armen Sarkisian, Vahan Kerobyan, Nikol Pashinyan, NATO, USA, Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin,
Volodymyr Zelensky, Party of War, Donbas, Azerbaijan, Georgia, South Caucasus,
Turkey, Borders, Peace Negotiations,