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Introduction
Hello, and welcome to the
Armenian News Network, Groong, Week
in Review. This show was recorded on Monday, November 1, 2021.
Every now and then it’s good
to step out of our local political scene and take a wider view of regional and
global affairs. So, this week we will talk about the following international
topics:
●
Georgia’s Runoff Elections
●
Turkish Drones in Donbas
●
Iran-Turkey Tensions
●
The G20 Palooza
And for this, we’re joined by
Dr. Pietro Shakarian,
who is a Lecturer in History at the
American University of Armenia in Yerevan. His research focuses on the history
of Eastern Armenia and the Caucasus, especially Soviet Armenia during the era
of Nikita Khrushchev’s Thaw.
Topics This Week
Georgia’s Runoff Elections
On Saturday October 30th, Georgia held runoff
elections following its local/municipal elections earlier
in the month. Early results show that the ruling party, Georgian Dream, led by
prime minister Irakli Garibashvili swept the runoffs. The opposition United
National Movement party led by Nika Melia, who lost the mayoral race in
Tbilisi, came up short despite the return and imprisonment of their former
leader and president Mikheil Saakashvili.
Georgian Dream won the mayoral races in all 5 of
the major cities, - Tbilisi, Batumi, Kotaisi, Poti and Rustavi.
The Georgian Dream party has a more balanced
approach to regional geopolitics than the UNM, as they take a more nuanced
approach to relations with Russia, Turkey, the West, and China. The UNM is a
more polarizingly pro-West party. What should we make
of these election results?
How do they affect Georgia’s relations with
Russia? With Armenia? With Turkey & Russia?
Turkish Drones in Donbas
This past week, Ukraine’s
armed forces claimed that one of their soldiers was killed
from shelling by pro-Russian forces in the eastern Donbas province. Following
this Ukraine deployed one of their newly
acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones
and destroyed a pro-Russian Soviet-era Howitzer D-30.
The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, expressed concern that the drones in the hands of
the Ukraine military are a “destabilizing”
factor.
We’ve talked about Turkey selling its drones to
as many countries as possible on Russia’s borders. These drones seem to be like
a ring of fire encircling Russia, spreading from Poland and Ukraine on its
western frontiers, to Artsakh and Azerbaijan in the south, and to Tajikistan
and Afghanistan in Central Asia.
How does the Kremlin sleep soundly under such
circumstances? Does Russia have weapons to effectively counter this new threat?
Do Putin’s comments
at the Valdai Club give any hints about Russia’s continuing policy
on Ukraine in the coming months?
Is Russia reevaluating its policy vis-à-vis
Ukraine due to this new military threat, specially within the context of a Turkish-Ukrainian
cross-Black Sea alliance? Note that Ukraine has even
applied for observer
status in the Council of Turkic-Countries (Turkic
Council).
How about Russian policy in the Caucasus?
Iran-Turkey Tensions
Since the 44-day war in Artsakh, Iran has lost
significant influence and leverage in the Caucasus. While its stated policy was
that Armenia should return territories adjacent to Artsakh back to Azerbaijan
and find a peaceful resolution, it was quite happy with the status quo because
so much of the Azerbaijani border with Iran was under Armenian control, and out
of reach for Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel, to use
against Iran.
That has all changed. Seeing that Armenia has
not defended its interests in Artsakh, and has even allowed Azerbaijan to
encroach on its territory, and threatened to block Iran from Armenia, Iran has
found itself needing to respond
to Aliyev’s provocations, and Turkey’s expanding
sphere of influence in the region.
What are the key geopolitical interests that
Iran must defend on its northern borders?
What are the main causes of tension between Iran
and Turkey?
Iran and Russia
have been meeting to discuss regional and military cooperation.
What does a Russo-Iranian partnership in the region mean, what form can it
take?
G20 Palooza
After nearly 2 years the leaders of the G20
countries, the top 20 economies of the world, met in Rome starting on Friday.
Leaders from Russia, China, Mexico and Japan attended
remotely.
The main
topics revolved around climate change, an
international minimum business tax deal, the pandemic, and the global economic
recovery from the pandemic. The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was a topic among US
and EU leaders, as were China’s rise on the international scene, and Russia, as
in Russia vs. the West.
On the sidelines there were many meetings of
note, let’s just mention a couple of them:
●
Biden met with Erdogan: main
topics around human rights and the F16 and other
military deals. Karabakh was also supposed to be on the agenda.
●
Putin attended remotely. Putin & Johnson discussed
the JCPOA.
●
Biden spoke with Lavrov, Biden stressed interest
in further contacts with Putin
●
Lavrov and Çavusoghlu were
scheduled to discuss 3+3
Impressions from the G20 summit?
Topics from the Panelists
1. Hovik - on rules and laws with no intention of enforcing them.
2. Pietro - on the government’s Covid response
Wrap-up
That was our Week in Review
show, and we hope it helped you catch up with some of the issues in and around
Armenia from this past week. As always, we invite your feedback and your
suggestions. You can find us on most social media and podcast platforms, or our
website Groong.org.
Thanks to Laura Osborn for
the music on our podcasts. Don’t forget to subscribe to our channel on Youtube, Like our pages and follow us on social media. On behalf of
everyone in this episode, we wish you a good week, thanks for listening and
we’ll talk to you next week.
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Keywords
Pietro Shakarian,
Georgia, Georgian Dream, United National Movement, UNM, Georgia Elections,
Local elections, Municipal Elections, Mikheil
Saakashvili, Irakli Garibashvili, Nika Melia, Ukraine, Donbas, Turkey, Bayraktar, TB2, Drones, Russia, Kremlin, Dmitri Peskov, Valdai Club, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, Corridors,North-South, East-West,
G20, JCPOA, United States, Iran, Turkmenistan, Oil, Gas, Energy, Joe Biden,
Vladimir Putin, Recep Erdogan, Sergei Lavrov, Volodymyr Zelensky,