Armenian
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Guest
Hosts
Introduction
Hello, and welcome to the
Armenian News Network, Groong, Week
in Review.
I’m Asbed Bedrossian and along with Hovik
Manucharyan, This Week we’re going to talk about the following major topics:
●
Border update, and Leaked documents
●
Azerbaijan membership in the CSTO?
●
New MPG Poll and Elections
To talk about these issues, we have with us:
Emil
Sanamyan who is a senior research
fellow at USC’s Institute of Armenian Studies specializing in politics in the
Caucasus.
Topics This Week
Leaked Documents on Border Demarcation, Peace?
As we discussed last week, starting on May 12,
Azerbaijan began an incursion into territories that formerly belonged to
Armenia. Currently some Armenian
territories are under Azerbaijani control, and there have been brawls
& shootouts between soldiers. What is happening on the border?
Meanwhile, there was another leak of a document.
The first version leaked by Minasyan contained a lot of redacted text, but
Minasyan alleged that Pashinyan wishes to hand over former Azerbaijani exclaves
in Armenia in preparation for recognition of Azerbaijan’s borders and
establishment of diplomatic relations. The Azerbaijani enclaves sit directly on
two important transport routes for Armenia.
During the week Tatul
Hakobyan warned the Prime Minister not to sign documents against Armenian national
interests.
A new leak of a full un-redacted document which
didn’t seem to corroborate Minasyan’s statements. Minasyan claimed that the
document he had is an older version.
What’s the significance of the document? Did the
first version of the Nov. 9 Agreement, published on the Russian MFA website
contain references to villages in Ghazakh?
After the leak of the document, the
parliamentary opposition invited a special session of the parliament to discuss
a new law that would prevent such territorial negotiations unilaterally by
Pashinyan.
The measure failed of course, but during the
discussions in Parliament Pashinyan seemed to confirm that there is such a
document, and he intends to sign it. However, he disputed Mikael Minasyan’s
narrative and said that they simply are starting negotiations. However,
Pashinyan also made references to Artsvashen (which
is an Armenian exclave in Azerbaijan) arguing that maybe it's worthwhile to
discuss the exchanging Artsvashen in exchange for
Azerbaijani exclaves?
Is Artsvashen of any
significance? Is it possible to consider this as a fair exchange?
The parliamentary opposition argues that the
issue of exclaves should be considered as an international agreement, which
according to Armenian law requires a review by the constitutional court.
Further, any change to Armenia’s borders requires a referendum per Armenia’s
constitution.
Can Pashinyan legally conduct such negotiations?
If not, then does Armenia have any recourse to reverse things if Pashinyan goes
through with it? What are Russia’s calculations here? If Pashinyan legally
cannot sign such a document, then wouldn’t Russia incur international risk by
participating as a mediator in such a deal?
Around the same time as the documents leaked,
Ilham Aliyev said that Azerbaijan is ready for a peace deal with Armenia, if
the latter recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity including
Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.
Would Pashinyan recognize Artsakh as part of
Azerbaijan? Even without him, is Armenia headed towards an “imposed peace”?
Azerbaijan Membership in CSTO?
Today, there was a statement by the deputy
foreign minister of Russia Andrey Rudenko who argued that the doors to
Azerbaijan’s membership in CSTO should be opened. He did provide a caveat
however that first diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan must
exist, but he seemed confident that “sooner
or later” this will happen.
Where is Rudenko’s optimism coming from?
New MPG Poll and Elections
A new MPG poll was published last week
indicating that Kocharyan is gaining traction against Pashinyan.
Findings:
(change from Apr)
● Pashinyan (27.2% -> 24.8%)
● Kocharyan (8.1% -> 14.3%)
● Intent to participate: (62.7% -> 74%)
Video:
https://facebook.com/gallup.am/videos/482262313021620/
Margins
for May poll (± 3.5%)
----
Who'd
you vote for this Sunday: (Mar -> Apr -> May)
- CC (Pashinyan): 31.7 -> 27.2 -> 24.8%
- ARF + RA (Kocharyan): 5.9 -> 8.1 ->
14.3%
- PAP (Tsarukyan):
2.7 -> 1.8 -> 4.1%
- RPA + Hayrenik (Vanetsyan): 2.4 -> 1.1 -> 3.1%
- Republic (Aram Z. Sargsyan): 0.4 -> 0.3
-> 2.5%
----
Do
you plan to participate in 6/20 elections? (Mar -> Apr -> May)
● Definitely yes: 41.2% -> 48.3% -> 55.7%
● Likely yes: 10.7% -> 14.4% -> 18.3%
● Likely no: 15.0% -> 20.2% -> 10.8%
● Definitely no: 15.9% -> 13.5% -> 13.9%
● Difficult to respond: 17.2% -> 3.7% -> 1.2%
----
Summary
of intent to participate: (Mar -> Apr -> May)
● YES: 52.9% -> 62.7% -> 74%
● NO: 30.9% -> 33.7 -> 24.7%
What do these dynamics tell us?
Meanwhile during the Bright Armenia congress
which took place on Saturday, Edmon Marukyan raised questions about whether elections would
happen at all. Many in the opposition allege that Bright Armenia is in cahoots
with Nikol on many issues and fear that Marukyan is preparing ground for Nikol
to cancel the elections, potentially by declaring martial law related to issues
happening on the border.
Is canceling the elections possible now?
Wrap-up
That concludes our program
for This Week in Review episode. We
hope it has helped your understanding of some of the issues from the previous
week. We look forward to your feedback, and your suggestions for issues to
cover in greater depth. Contact us on our website, at groong.org,
or on our Facebook Page “ANN - Groong”,
or in our Facebook Group “Groong - Armenian News Network”.
Special thanks to Laura
Osborn for providing the music for our podcast. On behalf of everyone in this
episode, we wish you a good week. Don’t forget to subscribe to our channels, Like our pages and follow us on social media. Thanks for
listening and we’ll talk to you next week.
Keywords
Emil Sanamyan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Artsakh, Karabakh, Syunik,
Gegharkunik, border incursions, Mikael Minasyan, Ghazakh,
Tigranashen, Verin Voskepar, enclaves, exclaves, Artsvashen,
CSTO, MPG, poll, elections, Nikol Pashinyan, Robert
Kocharyan, Civil Contract, Gagik Tsarukyan, Edmon Marukyan, Republican Party
of Armenia, Armenian Revolutionary Federation, Prosperous Armenia Party, Bright
Armenia Party, Reviving Armenia Party, Ilham Aliyev