Armenian
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Introduction
Hello, and welcome to the
Armenian News Network, Groong, Week
in Review. This week we’re going to talk about the following major topics:
●
Mr. Pashinyan goes to Moscow
●
Election Politics
●
The POW debacle
●
A Coronavirus Update
●
The State of the Economy
To talk about these issues, we have with us:
Asbed
Kotchikian, who is an Associate
Professor of political science and international relations at the American
University of Armenia.
And
Hrant Mikaelian,
a political scientist and multidisciplinary researcher in social sciences based
in Yerevan. He is also a senior researcher at the Caucasus Institute.
Topics This Week
Pashinyan Goes to Moscow
Prime Minister Pashinyan went to Moscow and met
Putin in person on April 7.
Pashinyan mentioned many issues in the public
part of his speech, including POWs, security, the Russian vaccine, and energy,
including Russian support for building a new nuclear power plant. Russia mainly
seemed to communicate the need for implementation of the Nov. 10 ceasefire
agreement as a priority.
Which of these topics piqued interest? How should we view the meeting? Was Pashinyan able to come back from the meeting with any significant gains for Armenia?
Election Politics
We’re seeing political actors big and small
gearing up for elections. Prime minister Pashinyan is touring Armenian regions
meeting with voters. Many new political parties seem to be forming. Robert
Kocharyan, who is now free of the main prosecution against him, has announced
that he’ll be running in the upcoming election as part of a bloc.
Some see the upcoming electoral contest as being
mainly between two blocs, the incumbent My Step, and on the other side the
forces allied with Robert Kocharyan.
Others balk at the idea that any of the
“formers” have a chance to even run in these elections.
The new electoral code will apply to the early
elections, if they take place, but the minimum threshold to get into parliament
has not changed for these elections. It is still 5% for blocs and 7% for
parties.
Will the elections be bi-polar, or will there be
more diversity in the participants?
Despite the fragmented structure, will the
opposition coordinate on a unified strategy? Do they have a strategy? Does the
government have a strategy?
The POW debacle
On the evening of Thursday, April 8, a Russian
airplane flew from Baku to Erebuni airport. Shortly
before the arrival of the airplane, Armenian social media exploded with the
news of the return of a large group of refugees being flown in by the head of
Russian Peacekeepers in Artsakh, General Rustam Muradov yet the plane arrived
without any POWs.
The news seems to have been leaked by several
sources in the government, but General Muradov essentially said that no POW
return was planned on that flight and called those spreading such news as liars
and provocateurs. And the following day
angry mobs surrounded
the ministry of defense and were able to successfully block
the entry and exit of MOD employees for the entire day.
The news was first reported
by Araratnews (whose
editor in chief is VP of Armenian National Assembly), but all major media (even
Azatutyun) were there, many with live feeds on to
capture the return of our soldiers. The news media reported that Mane Gevorgyan (Pashinyan’s
spokesperson) and other high-ranked officials leaked the news. It seems that
even families of the POWs were informed and there was a large group of families
waiting at the airport in hope of the return of their sons and daughters. And
as we all know, the plane arrived without any POWs and the following day when
questioned by a reporter,
Overall this
played out like a cruel and heart wrenching joke on the families of the
prisoners. And the following day angry mobs surrounded
the ministry of defense and were able to successfully block
the entry and exit of MOD employees for the entire day.
Officials (including
Alen Simonyan) then had
to go on media appearances in the following days and confirmed Muradov’s claims
that there were no plans to bring in refugees. Simonyan
said that while there were no distinct plans, there is always hope that such
flights will bring our soldiers back.
What are we missing in this story? Why
orchestrate such a big show if there’s no prior agreement on things?
Coronavirus Update - No Vaccine in Sight
After nearly two months during which COVID
numbers in Armenia improved, infections and deaths have picked up significantly
over the last 2-3 weeks. We’re currently registering over a thousand new
infections and 15-25 deaths daily. Armenia’s healthcare system is again
stretched thin.
We heard a week ago that 24,000 Astra-Zeneca
vaccines had arrived, and this week 15,000 Sputnik V vaccines were donated to
Armenia the day after Pashinyan met with Putin.
Despite the situation Anahit Avanesyan,
the minister of health, says that they’re on track with their game plan.
What’s the game plan?
The lack of vaccine and insignificant level of
vaccination in Armenia are a major concern. What’s the reason for the crawling
pace of vaccination?
The State of the Economy
Needless to say, the past year has been a very
difficult time for Armenia. First the Coronavirus pandemic hit 13 months ago,
then we had the July border skirmishes, and then the third war in Artsakh all
of October of 2020.
The Armenian economy has suffered badly. Last
year’s economic decline is officially set at 7.6%. Right now, there’s rampant
inflation in the country, officially estimated to be around 6% but if you look
at a consumer basket, many daily essentials have gotten more expensive by 10,
20, 30% or more.
In
the US they say that the virus is in charge of the economy, meaning that for
the economy to improve, we have to deal with the virus first. Is this the case
as well in Armenia, or is there more than meets the eye here?
On the flip side of the economy, the Prime
Minister has promised
to raise the salary of certified teachers by
30-50%, and to increase the funding for science to over 2 billion Drams. These
all sound great but with an economy that is down a lot, and the Central Bank
predicting anemic growth of under 2%, where’s the money coming from?
There are also rosier predictions by some
cabinet ministers for 6% or even “double digit growth”. Is there a basis for
double-digit optimism? What is Hrant’s estimate of
the growth of the Armenian economy in 2021?
Wrap-up
That concludes our program
for This Week in Review episode. We
hope it has helped your understanding of some of the issues from the previous
week. We look forward to your feedback, and your suggestions for issues to
cover in greater depth. Contact us on our website, at groong.org,
or on our Facebook Page “ANN - Groong”,
or in our Facebook Group “Groong - Armenian News Network”.
Special thanks to Laura
Osborn for providing the music for our podcast. On behalf of everyone in this
episode, we wish you a good week. Don’t forget to subscribe to our channels, Like our pages and follow us on social media. Thanks for
listening and we’ll talk to you next week.
Keywords
Armenia, Early Elections, Snap Elections, Hrant Mikaelian, Nikol Pashinyan, Robert Kocharyan, Vladimir Putin, POW,
Prisoners of War, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Pandemic, Economy, Russia, Moscow,
Artsakh, Karabakh,
Additional:
Asbed Kotchikian, Rustam Muradov, Nuclear Power
Plant, ANPP, Energy Production, Vaccine, Astra-Zeneca, Sputnik V, Anahit Avanesyan, Ministry of Health,