Armenian
News Network / Groong
● Areg Danagoulian (special guest)
Hello, and welcome to the
Armenian News Network, Groong, Week
in Review. This week we’ll discuss the military aggression by Azerbaijan
against Armenia that started on Sunday, July 12. Our main topics are:
●
Clashes on the Tavush Border
●
The Azerbaijani propaganda around Armenian
threats on the Mingechaur reservoir
Later in the podcast, Asbed Kotchikian talks with Dr. Areg Danagulian about the dangers of Azerbaijan’s threat to
strike Armenia’s Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP) with missiles.
Around noon on Sunday, July
12, Azerbaijani forces attempted to infiltrate the Armenian border in the
Tavush region of Armenia. Upon initial shots by Armenian armed forces,
Azerbaijani soldiers abandoned their vehicle and retreated, only to attack the
Armenian army border post again and be repulsed after suffering nearly half a
dozen deaths.
Later on
Sunday evening Azerbaijan started intensive shelling along the Armenian border,
and by Monday morning there were reports of drone attacks, shelling, and sniper
fire. Azerbaijan also went on a PR and Cyber offensive. Armenian government
sites were hacked, and both Azerbaijan and Turkey were trying to pin
responsibility for the fighting on Armenia.
The attack was preceded by
public threats to resume military action. As recently as the first week of
July, Ilham Aliyev complained about the OSCE Minsk Group mediators and firmly
told reporters that for Azerbaijan the military option was on the table. Since then the relative calm along the Armenian-Azerbaijan state
border and the Azerbaijan-Artsakh line of contact (LoC) has degraded,
culminating in the clashes of July 12th.
By July 14 Azeri losses had
accumulated to over a dozen, including
many high ranking officers at the Major-General,
Colonel and Major rank levels. Armenia suffered military and civilian
casualties as well, including a destroyed kindergarten. During intensive
fighting, Tavush residents were asked to take cover in bomb shelters for days.
Now let’s do a deep-dive analysis with our well-informed guests.
● Emil Sanamyan wrote an article about these events for the USC Institute of Armenian Studies the day after fighting broke out. What are your thoughts about these continuing hostilities, is this just another routine flare-up, or are there more serious reasons to be worried here? Why the escalation now and why on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border (as opposed to the line of contact in Artsakh)?
●
Azerbaijan appears to have been ready with its
massive PR machine because within a day after the hostilities began Azeri press
was full of one-sided statements by a large number of international Islamic
organizations, Islamic countries and various other alliances such as the GUAM. Meanwhile, most other organizations and countries
put out balanced statements calling for cessation of hostilities by both
parties and a return to peace and negotiations.
●
What are the dynamics driving the domestic
political scene in Baku? Ilham Aliyev just fired his long-time foreign minister
Elmar Mammadyarov for “ineffective negotiations” over Karabakh. There was a
crowd estimated at 30,000 demonstrating in Baku demanding an end to
negotiations and quarantine, and demanding war on Armenia. What is going on in
Baku?
●
Who is Azerbaijan’s new Foreign Minister Jeyhun
Bayramov? What do we know about him?
●
Defense Minister David Tonoyan
is well known for his “Active Defense Doctrine” which promotes a pre-emptive
strike defense and departs from classic trench defenses to a more “deterrence
through punishment” philosophy. Are we seeing this doctrine at play during
these events?
●
There was troubling one-sided language from
Turkey, and also GUAM, which includes Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova. Azerbaijan
currently holds the chairmanship of GUAM and likely penned the one-sided
statement in the name of GUAM. More balanced statements have followed from
individual GUAM countries. Meanwhile, only “balanced statements” have come from
the international community.
○
The reaction from Turkey was quick and
unprecedented in terms of its hostility. At the level of president, defense
minister, and foreign minister we heard threats that “Armenia wouldn’t get away
with this,” Cavusoglu stated that he’s ready to die for Azerbaijan. To what do
we attribute this belligerent rhetoric?
○
The reaction from GUAM (an alliance between
Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) was also quick. GUAM squarely sided
with Azerbaijan, condemning Armenia for the attacks.
○
The reaction from other international partners
were also quite equivocal. The OSCE Minsk Group, US, EU, Iran, and others all
strove to provide a “balanced” response, urging both sides to de-escalate.
○
The reactions from the CSTO, and what can be
expected from the CSTO. Why are the relationships with other CSTO members “not
great”?
●
Where do we go from here? What do we see
happening next?
●
Defense
minister’s interview
○
“Next time we start, we must…”
●
Aliyev’s
interview criticizing Minsk group (July 7)
○
“Their
main point is that the problem cannot be solved militarily,” he said. “Who said
that? We expect more serious, clear and targeted statements from the
mediators.” --Aliyev
●
Armenia’s
MOD spox announcement
○
“մեզ համար անհասկանալի պատճառով” ???
●
Armenian
government extraordinary session
○
DM also mentions “անհասկանալի
պատճառով”
●
The EVN Reports on this event:
○
Fighting
Erupts on Armenian-Azerbbaijani State Border -
7/13/2020
○
Updates
from the Armenian-Azerbaijan State Border -
7/14/2020
●
Armenian,
Azerbaijani Forces Tussle for High Ground on Tavush Border
●
Much more on Groong on Facebook.
Asbed Kotchikian talks with Areg Danagoulian
In this segment Asbed Kotchikian discusses a wide variety of aspects of the
Armenian Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP) at Metsamor with Areg Danagulian. The ANPP’s
significance to Armenia’s economy, energy security, and independence cannot be
overstated. The power plant was shut down in 1989 following the devastating
earthquake in Spitak, and when it was brought back
online in 1995 after being shut down since 1989 it served as a lifeline and
helped fuel Armenia’s economic growth for the next two decades.
Dr. Danagulian
is Associate Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering at MIT. He is
currently working on new, monochromatic methodologies for cargo
screening as well as technologies for treaty verification via resonant
phenomena and physical cryptography.
●
How
safe (structurally, operationally and strategically) is the Metsamor
NPP?
○
What
are the possible implications of a missile strike on Metsamor
NPP?
○
Should Armenia be shifting away from nuclear
power in the future?
○
Are the concerns about safety of the ANPP valid?
○
How long can the ANPP still be in service?
○
How resistant is it to earthquakes which have
been mentioned as a security concern?
○
Within the context of the recent conflagration
between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the latter’s threats to launch a missile
strike on Metsamor, how realistic is the threat?
■
How resistant is the ANPP to potential
military-induced nuclear catastrophe?
■
Is there some sort of a safety mechanism or
protocol that can minimize the damage in case such a catastrophe takes place?
■
If you were advising Armenia’s government, are
there any precautionary measures that you’d recommend be taken to reduce or
mitigate the risk of a military attack on Metsamor?
■
What is the worst-case scenario in terms of a
missile strike on Metsamor?
●
How does
nuclear fuel make its way to the ANPP? Doesn’t Armenia have Uranium resources
of its own?
● Looking into the future, given the landlocked status and potential geopolitical constraints, how realistic is it for Armenia to bolster its nuclear security?
●
Azerbaijan Threatens Missile Strike on Armenian Nuclear
Power Plant
●
During the war in the Tavush region, quite a few
news sources applied self-censorship while covering the frontline. On the other
hand social media was full of speculative statements
and even factually erroneous news which created more confusion among those who
were looking for news.
●
On the Azerbaijani side, it seemed that they
were ready and managed to roll out statements of support from some countries
and international organizations.
●
As a policy, Groong publishes news from
(pro)Azerbaijani sources to inform its audience on what the “other” side thinks
and says.
●
Unfortunately
the Armenian media landscape has difficulty breaking away from sensationalism
and providing in depth analysis, to an extent that they usually publish FB
posts by various individuals as news articles without any analysis.
There were
many articles this week about Azerbaijan’s threat of a missile attack on the
ANPP. In an article Forbes was rightfully cautious to write “alleged Armenian threat” about
Azerbaijani claims that Armenia had first threatened to bomb the Mingechaur water reservoir in Azerbaijan, probably because they
couldn’t verify it. Let’s clarify the chain of what was said, what was written,
because we can see how misunderstandings can lead to dangerous places.
In a Factor TV interview on July 2, former Armenian Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutyunyan discusses (in minutes 12 & 13)
that all of Azerbaijan is within reach of Armenian missile systems, and he
EXPLICITLY QUOTES Russian general Lev Rokhlin (from a speech in front of the Russian Duma) (see
minute 12:37 of the Factor TV interview) “…and here I bring you the statement
of Rokhlin, who during a presentation in the Duma
said: if the Armenian side used the SCUD systems, and targeted the Mingechaur reservoir, then two thirds of Azerbaijan would
be under water.”
Gen. Lev Rokhlin died in
1998!
However,
the news and rumors were spun offline and on social media to lead to an
official threat from Azerbaijan, we can see how unverified information can quickly
get out of hand. Regardless of that, we go back to what Emil Sanamyan says in the podcast: there is no way to equate
nuclear terror with blowing up a reservoir.
Areas where we decided that
need more exploration and discussion in the future:
●
Turkey today, its foreign policy in all
directions. What are the drivers of its foreign policy, its perceived strategic
goals?
●
The future of energy generation in energy in
Armenia; renewable energy sources.
More on the state of the Armenian media in our
future podcasts.
●
Azeri
armed forces
shelled an Armenian army outpost in the
northern Tavush province during a failed
attempt to seize it. Three Azerbaijani soldiers have died and 5 were injured.
The Armenian army suffered no losses.
●
Skirmishes continued with Drones/UAV’s; Armenian
forces had shot down many Azeri UAVs. Azeri deaths around 6-8. No Armenian
losses.
●
Over a dozen deaths on the Azeri side, including
senior military personnel with the rank of Major-General, Colonel, Majors. The
Armenian side also suffered losses but appears to have gained a strategic
height that overlooks the Azeri Tovuz district.
●
13 Azeri drones were downed by Armenian forces
since Sunday. The last UAV was an Israeli-made Elbit Hermes 900, Thunder-B
recon drone, and Skystriker combat drones. The Elbit
900 is a very expensive, powerful drone and the first of its type to be downed.
●
Armenia’s
SU-30SM fighter jets went on combat duty, protecting Armenia’s air space.
●
The U.S. House will Consider Measures Blocking
Transfer of Defense Articles to Azerbaijan, a key vote set for Monday July 20.
●
Several members of the US Congress condemned
Azerbaijan’s military aggression against Armenia.
●
“End the quarantine and start the war!” A crowd
of pro-war Azerbaijani protesters estimated around 30,000 strong broke into
parliament, demanding war with Armenia. Police intervened to break up the protest.
●
The
operative situation on the border became relatively calm, tensions de-escalated
later on Wednesday.
●
Azeri lobbies and propaganda were fully prepared
for this war. Azerbaijan and Turkey immediately lined up a long list of
condemnations of Armenia as the aggressor in this flare-up. [1]
[2]
●
Aliyev trashed his FM Mamedyarov
during a meeting of his cabinet. Mamedyarov failed to
attend the meeting for unknown reasons, and Aliyev expressed anger at his
inadequate performance and the
fact that Mamedyarov had allegedly discussed
cooperating with Armenia on combating the coronavirus pandemic
●
Turkish president Erdogan had a call with president Trump during which he slammed Armenia as the
aggressor in the conflict this week. No word from Trump yet.
●
No meaningful reactions from major
organizations: OSCE, the CSTO, NATO or the UN.
●
Balanced statements from Russia, Iran, Belarus,
Latvia, the UK.
●
Armenia’s MFA declared the absolute
inadmissibility of Turkey’s involvement in the settling of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. The statement declared Turkey a threat to the security of Armenia and
the Caucasus.
●
Gagik Tsarukyan does
not have Coronavirus.
●
A fake bomb threat was called on the Blue Mosque
in Yerevan.
●
A 30-year old Armenian
Shepherd was reported missing to Armenian police and was later reported in
custody by Azerbaijani police in Nakhichevan.
●
A new survey by the IRI claims 84 percent of
Armenians have either a “very” (72 percent) or “somewhat” (12 percent)
favorable opinion of the prime minister; a majority support the government’s
management of COVID-19, with 48 percent “very” and 23 percent “somewhat”
satisfied with the response; and when asked how state institutions have handled
the pandemic, respondents expressed improved opinions of the police (65
percent), the Ministry of Health (64 percent) and the Prime Minister’s office
(58 percent).
●
The WB, the EBRD and the EU approved nearly $40
million in financing for a 55MW Solar power plant in Armenia. Armenia currently
generates 70% of its electricity from fossil fuels, and this plant will
generate 128GW-hours of electricity annually, displacing the release of 40,000
tons of carbon.
●
Ilham Aliyev sacked his long-time foreign
minister, Elmar Mammadyarov, after denouncing his poor performance in the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Mammadyarov was replaced by education minister
Jeyhun Bayramov.
●
Clashes resume on Azerbaijan-Armenia border
●
State Senators Portantino, Borgeas
Condemn Azerbaijan’s Attack on Armenia
●
US House will Vote on Jackie Speier’s Amendment
Restoring Military Aid Parity to Yerevan and Baku
●
Clashes ease on Armenia-Azerbaijan border: No
casualties reported on Armenian side
●
Azerbaijan threatens to cause a 'nuclear
catastrophe' by attacking the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, claiming Armenia
has threatened its Mingechaur Reservoir. The claim is
patently false.
That concludes our program
for This Week in Review episode. We
hope it has helped your understanding of some of the issues from the previous
week. We look forward to your feedback, and your suggestions for issues to
cover in greater depth. Contact us on our website, at groong.org,
or on our Facebook Page “ANN - Groong”,
or in our Facebook Group “Groong - Armenian News Network”.
Special
thanks to Laura Osborn for providing the music for our podcast. On behalf of
everyone in this episode, we wish you a good week. Don’t forget to subscribe to
our channels, Like our pages and follow us on social
media. Thanks for listening and we’ll talk to you next week.
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tavush, War, Border
skirmish, Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, ANPP, Metsamor,
Mingechaur Reservoir, Mingachevir, Baku, SCUD
Additional:
Emil Sanamyan, Asbed Kotchikian,
Vagharshak Harutyunyan, Lev Rokhlin,
Flood