Our guest today
is
|
Arthur Khachikyan, PhD, who is an International Relations
expert from Stanford University, specializing in Intervention. He currently
teaches at the Russian Armenian University in Yerevan. |
|
Armenian
News Network / Groong
Conversations on Groong: Artsakh Under Blockade: Day 6
● Arthur Khachikyan
Hello
and welcome to the Armenian News Network, Groong.
Today’s
episode is a collaborative effort with “168 Hours” in an effort to increase the
amount of English language content in the midst of the humanitarian disaster
that is ongoing in Artsakh.
In
this Conversations on Groong
episode, we continue our coverage of the blockade of Artsakh, which has entered
its sixth day.
This
episode was recorded on Saturday, December 17, 2022.
We’re going on to
Day 6 of the Artsakh Blockade by Azerbaijan, and Groong and 168 Hours are
teaming up to bring you more English-language coverage on the developments of
this very serious issue, a major humanitarian crisis in Artsakh in progress.
For those of you
who haven’t heard of Groong before, we invite you to visit Groong’s podcast
website at podcasts.groong.org to learn more and to subscribe. If you’re
watching this on Youtube, the link will also be available in the description.
We are all in
this together for the benefit of an informed Armenian public in these challenging
times.
Our guest today
is
|
Arthur Khachikyan, PhD, who is an International Relations
expert from Stanford University, specializing in Intervention. He currently
teaches at the Russian Armenian University in Yerevan. |
|
On
Monday, December 12, a group of people in civilian clothes blocked the
Shushi-Qarin Tak segment of the Lachin corridor for all traffic.
Although
this is clearly instigated by the Azerbaijani government, the official pretense
is that this group of so-called “eco-activists” was demanding to inspect the
Kashen gold mine in Artsakh/Nagorno Karabakh, which employs 1800 people and is
one of the larger tax-payers in Artsakh.
As a
result, more than 120 thousand people are in a total blockade. For 2-3 days gas
service was also disrupted, before being
restored again. Thousands of Artsakhtsis who were visiting Armenia are now
stranded, among them children. Food, medicine, fuel are all under rations.
The
international response has been limited to the realm of announcements. The
Russian peacekeepers, while under constant harassment by the Azerbaijanis, have
so far maintained their cool and are trying to negotiate a withdrawal of the
Azerbaijanis, however to no avail. Usage of force to open the corridor so far
has not been viewed as an option by the peacekeepers.
Artsakh
officials stranded in Yerevan are conducting sit-ins at various embassies,
especially at the UN mission. The Armenian government appears to largely have
taken an observer’s position. Meanwhile, today the UN Security Council is due
to hold a closed hearing on the topic.
Arthur,
as we have discussed both on Groong and 168, Azerbaijan’s long-term strategy is
to cause enough inconvenience and harassment of the Artsakh population to cause
them to leave their homes, and perhaps also to populate Artsakh with
Azerbaijanis creating a more demographically favorable situation for Baku.
● The question for the current incident is: what
has led to the current altercation at this point in time? What instigated
Azerbaijan to begin blocking the Lachin corridor this week?
In
addition to the “eco-activists”, video clips shared by Azeri media indicate
that Azeri police and even special forces have now been deployed on the
corridor. The initial environmental pretense has now been replaced by
additional demands, including:
● Presence of Azerbaijani state bodies (customs,
ministry of state protection, etc..) on
the corridor to be stationed (in conjunction with Russian peacekeepers) at
checkpoints
● Presence of Azerbaijani border guards on the
border of Armenia on the Lachin corridor
None
of these demands stem from the Nov. 9-10 agreement. Yesterday, we even heard
calls from members of the Milli Mejlis that Russian peacekeepers must leave.
● Do you foresee development of events in such a
manner that any of these demands are met?
● Do you believe that Armenia’s refusal to open
the so-called “Zangezur” corridor (exactly based on Azerbaijan’s whims and
conditions) is part of what Azerbaijan seeks to gain here?
While
the ultimate goal of Azerbaijan is ridding Artsakh of Armenians, in the near
and tactical terms there is a rational question of whether the current Azeri
action is against Armenians or the Russians. Initially when the Azeri
demonstrators began to agitate, they demanded to meet with Volkov. Now they’re
talking about early termination of the Russian peacekeeping mission around
Nagorno Karabakh.
Some
analysts believe that the goal is to put pressure around the peacekeeping
mission to cause an accidental flare up, an altercation, a use of force, to
create a new front for Russia, in order to divide its attention and resources
between Ukraine and the South Caucasus. Despite everything, the Russians have
been very cool and collected in their response to the incident.
An
Azerbaijani government pollster published the results of a poll indicating that
more than 80% of Azerbaijanis would like the Russian peacekeepers to leave.
This is interesting because the popularity of Russia is also waning in Yerevan,
based on a recent Gallup International poll, where more than 59% of the
respondents had a negative opinion of Russia’s role in the conflict.
● How would you evaluate the activity of Russian
peacekeepers overall? Isn’t the fact that Azerbaijanis were able to sidestep
the Russian peacekeepers and flood the area, even deploying military there, an
indication of failure?
● Do you believe that the behavior of Russian
peacekeepers may be influenced by decisions from Moscow, for instance as a
response to Armenia’s vocal criticism of Russia and CSTO (even to the point of
vetoing CSTO declarations in Yerevan)?
● Or, do you believe that the Azeri agitation is
aimed at pressuring the Russians, and if so, to what end?
○ Are the Azeri actions in frustrated response to
the diminished expectations for a so-called “peace deal” by year’s end?
There’s
a belief by Russian officials that the West’s intentions in Karabakh is to open
a 2nd front and that the provocations on the Lachin corridor are part of this.
Alternatively, if not a 2nd front, some forces in Armenia are seriously
considering that Russia may be pressured to leave the region.
● Is this even fathomable? If the unexpected were
to happen and suddenly the Russian peacekeepers were to leave, what do you
think would happen?
● Are there any Western security mechanisms that
could be triggered to ensure the safety of the Artsakh population?
● Even if The West were to really wish to help
Artsakh, for example if France and Macron were to wish to help secure Artsakh’s
safety, could they do anything?
○ Why or why not?
○ This past weekend we were talking with Benyamin
Poghosyan on Groong, and he mentioned that while he was in Syunik, he had
interactions with young people of whom perhaps 90% thought that Armenia should
leave the CSTO, that Russia is not a friend, that the West would save Armenia,
help arm it, etc. In a region like Syunik, where the border villages now live
within shooting range of Azerbaijan’s armed forces, where do such fallacies
come from?
○ Has Armenian not learned anything from 100 years
ago?
Over
the past month or so, Pashinyan has been emphasizing that Azerbaijan is preparing to commit Genocide against Artsakh. He,
and his government have been quite vocal about this recently. Yet, when it came
to the Parliament drafting a statement to condemn the current events in the
Lachin corridor, the ruling party rejected the opposition’s demand to emphasize
Artsakh’s right to self-determination. The ruling party said that those views
were not part of the government’s foreign policy “toolbox”.
Critics
argue that the Armenian government is largely acting as an observer. Many
times, Yerevan has said that Nagorno-Karabakh is now the responsibility of the
Russian peacekeeping mission. Most recently, Armenian authorities have been promoting the idea that authorities in Stepanakert and
Baku should negotiate directly.
● Is Pashinyan’s show then a boondoggle?
What
else could it do that it is not doing? For instance:
● Can Armenia attempt to airlift aid, despite Azerbaijani
threats to shoot down any aircraft flying to/from Stepanakert?
● Can Armenia withdraw from the “peace”
negotiations?
● Recognize Artsakh’s independence?
All
of this is happening in the context of ongoing negotiations between Armenia and
Azerbaijan on peace, which is apparently being exploited by world powers and
viewed more as a competitive process rather than cooperation.
Unofficially,
there are at least 4 different approaches and formats
● The Azerbaijani one
● The one mediated by Russia
● The one mediated by the US
● The one mediated by the EU
There’s
very little reliable information about what is being discussed as part of these
different processes other than the reverberations we hear in the press.
● Whatever happened to the “peace” process?
● What, in your opinion, are the main points of
contention now?
Recently,
Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson has not excluded the possibility that there
will be a (Russia-Armenia-Azerbaijan) trilateral meeting in St. Petersburg,
during the next informal CIS summit?
● While formally Armenia has not confirmed this,
what could be expected if the meeting does take place?
Earlier
this week foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan addressed
the UN Security Council (UNSC), while security council chair Armen Grigorian
has updated various European governments about the
situation in the Lachin corridor. And we’re aware that today the UN Security
council has scheduled a closed hearing on the issue at the initiative of
France.
● Arthur, what does the Armenian government expect
from the UNSC? Is there enough solidarity within the UNSC to take appropriate
action?
A
number of government representatives from Artsakh were also stranded in Yerevan
due to the blockade. Since Wednesday, a number of them, including Artak
Beglaryan (Artsakh deputy state minister and former HR ombudsman) as well as
Gegham Stepanyan (acting HR ombudsman) are conducting a sit-in in front of the
United Nations mission.
There
were also protests in front of all 5 permanent UN Security Council nations.
Protesters even demonstrated in front of the Chinese embassy.
Just
yesterday, after 3 days of sit-ins, the local Armenia-based UN Resident
Coordinator, Christine Weigand, held a meeting with Beglaryan and Stepanyan.
This seems to be the first time - ever - that the UN rep has agreed to meet
representatives of Artsakh. Their protocol so far has been that the Karabakh issue
is outside of their mandate.
● How important is this kind of activism? Is there
any hope from the international community at this stage?
Meanwhile
a number of Western countries, including US, France, UK, EU have called for the
corridor to be re-opened, some of them explicitly condemning Azerbaijan.
● How effective do you think such calls can be?
By
the way, yesterday Nikol Pashinyan met with the head of the British spy agency,
MI-6, right here in Yerevan. Earlier in the week, Armen Grigoryan, (head of the
national security council) visited London where he also met with Moore.
● What do you think was talked about in these
meetings?
All
right, that’s our show, we hope you found that useful. Please find us
on Social Media and follow us everywhere you get your Armenian
news, the links are in the show notes. Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on
our podcasts. We’ll talk to you soon!
Arthur
Khachikyan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Karabakh, Artsakh, Blockade, Lachin, Lachin
Corridor, Berdzor, Berdzor Corridor, Ilham Aliyev, Armenia, Azerbaijan, News
From Armenia, Armenian News, Russian Peacekeepers, Russia, Richard Moore, UN
Security Council, United Nations, Baku, Yerevan, Stepanakert, Turkey, Ankara,
Erdogan, Kashen Mine, Drmbon, 168am, 168, Ararat Mirzoyan, Armen Grigoryan,
Sullivan Plan, Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin, Հայաստան, Արցախ, Լեռնային Ղարաբաղ,
Բերձոր, Լաչին, Ադրբեջան
